Covid-19 in Next Few Days ?
KEY POINTS
The speed of the spread of Covid-19 is in increasing rate during last three weeks and became higher in last week all over the world.
Italy is in the highest risk whereas Luxembourg , USA and Iran have to be more careful in next few days.
Ecuador and Qatar are also potential to be at risk according to the recent statistics.
Highest recovery cases for a day has been recorded by Singapore in March.
China is maintaining lower death and confirmed ratio while keeping recovery rate in higher.
The following tables have summarized the prevailing situation of the Covid-19 in March. The countries which have not yet been experienced with any recovered cases are categorized as NO Recovered whereas counties that do not have any deaths in NO Deaths category. Meantime, Luxembourg is at risk since the country has been dominating 3 and 2 days with the highest number of confirmed and death cases out of 19 days (from 1st to 19th of March).
COVID- 19 pandemic has affected 182 countries out of 195 as of today and rapidly spread across the world with over 10, 000 deaths.
The first confirmed case of the virus was reported from China — Wuhan in December and the number of cases begins to decrease from the middle of February onward in China. However, on its current route, it is likely to spread this virus to the rest of the world threatening the lives of the people in Europe, North America and Asia.
The statistics show that the virus has now been more activated in European countries and the USA which are said to be powerful in health and economy. As of 20th March, 2020, Italy has recorded 3405 deaths with the biggest daily jump of 427 deaths which has become as the deadliest center of the COVID-19 pandemic, overtaking China’s total death tolls.
Epicenter Analysis in each Category
The data have been analysed and plotted under three categories including CONFIRMED, DEATHS and RECOVERED.
Fig.2, 3 and 4 illustrate the daily behavior of the confirmed, recovered and death cases of the virus with the country which reported the maximum toll from 22nd January to 19th March. The figures further provide the ratio of the maximum value and total number of cases in each category to illustrate the spread of the virus globally.
Fig.2 gives that although China dominated all the confirmed, recovered and deaths up to the mid of February, a significant change can be seen afterwards in all the Max to Total ratio line graphs. This indicates that
- Though China has a huge number of cases at the beginning of the virus outbreak starting from January, now it is more spreading to the other countries outside of China.
- The countries currently dominating the virus have a very low ratio of maximum to total cases.
- In January, almost all the cases are reported from China and now there is a tendency of spreading the virus more on a global level outside China due to the low ratio of Max to Total.
- After February, there is a major country contributing to the maximum number of cases, but there are a lot of other countries as well with substantial numbers of cases due to the widespread of the virus across the world.
- Still China surpasses other countries in the recovered cases in some days.
- After the 13th of March, all the maximum number of confirmed cases and deaths are reported from Italy.
- There is a tendency that the highest number of confirmed cases will be from the USA in the next few days.
What is happening in March ?
A further analysis is done by considering the data of March, since a significant variation can be seen after the mid of February. Furthermore, the countries have categorized as no deaths, no recovered and all until 19th March and considered separately to analyze the trend of the virus globally.
Analysis of Confirmed Cases
Fig.5 illustrates the behavior of the the confirmed cases out of total. During the last week Finland and Israel have been experienced the maximum number of confirmed cases for two consecutive days.
According to the Fig.6 Luxembourg has been struggling with the pandemic because they have been the first, for three consecutive days during the last week. Though Slovenia became the first for more than 5 days,the number of confirmed cases are comparatively less than Luxembourg.
The figures for confirmed cases illustrate that there is a tendency of increasing the confirmed cases in upcoming days in all the countries which are currently affected. But it is proportionally higher for the countries which have been experienced deaths as shown in fig.7. The tendency is currently moving towards USA from Italy.
Analysis of Recovered Cases
There is no significant change in the recovered pattern in countries with deaths but it is slightly decreasing after 17th March.
- In countries with no deaths, the recovery pattern is gradually increasing from 1st of March.
- It can be seen that the recovered cases went down after 17th March.
- It will be recorded as a low recovered rate in the next few days whether the countries experienced deaths or not due to the virus.
Analysis of Death Cases
The most important trends to consider are death cases from 1st of March onward, which can be seen a slight growth up to the mid March in both categories.
- After 15th of March, the death cases have steadily increased, doubling the tolls from 15th March to 19th March in the death category.
- The number of deaths have increased substantially from the 15th March in the no deaths category.
- There can be many more deaths from Italy and even from the countries which found no recovered patients yet.
- Hence, there will be a huge threat to the people all over the world which the virus is likely spreading more and even life threatening according to the obtained results.
Summary
The COVID-19 virus has been stronger in March than its inception. The velocity of the spread has drastically been increased in all categories while increasing the death ratio significantly. Moreover, the Covid-19 has find its route from China to Europe from the time period of 2020-Jan to mid of March and now looking forward to move American continents.
